In 2025, the value of world trade is expected to be will fall by -0.2%, but the decline could be more Accentuated. This is the opinion of the World Trade Organization, which formulated this forecast estimate in light of the temporary suspension of tariffs announced by the US administration led by Donald Trump and on the basis of the tariffs in force last Monday. The WTO has pointed out that this reduction would be almost three percentage points lower than it would have been expected in a scenario with low tariffs and warned that, if Should the situation worsen, trade could to a contraction of -1.5%, with 0.6 percentage points less due to the impact of tariffs and the consequent reduction in the growth of the global trade volume and with an additional 0.8 points percentages of decline determined by the spread of uncertainty about trade policies. In addition, the WTO provides that the trade in services, although not directly subject to duties, will be negatively impacted by recording a growth of +4.0%, slower than expected.

At the beginning of 2025, the WTO Secretariat envisaged a continued expansion of world trade during this year and of 2026, with trade in goods growing in line with GDP and trade in commercial services is increasing at a faster pace. However, the high number of new tariffs introduced since January has prompted the organization's economists to re-evaluate the commercial situation, with a consequent substantial Downturn in forecasts.

The latest forecasts therefore mark a reversal of the trend compared to 2024 when the volume of world trade in goods growth of +2.9%, while world GDP increased by +2.8%, making 2024 the first year since 2017 - excluding recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic - where trade in goods is Gross domestic product has grown faster.

The impact of recent measures is expected to be expected in 2025 tariff rates on trade in goods will vary greatly from one region to another. According to the latest report "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" of the WTO Secretariat, this year the decrease in trade in goods will be particularly accentuated in North America, where it is estimated that exports will decrease by -12.6% and imports will fall by -9.6%. The North American region's performance will subtract 1.7 points annual growth in world trade in goods, making the overall figure negative.

In addition, it is estimated that Asia will record a modest growth in both exports and imports (+1.6% for both), as well as Europe (growth of +1.0% in exports and an increase of +1.9% in imports). The contributions of both regions to the growth of trade would remain positive with current trade policies, although lower than in the low-tariff scenario. Also the collective contribution to the growth of world trade of the other regions would remain positive, partly thanks to their importance as producers of energy products whose demand tends to remain stable.

It is also expected that the interruption of trade between The United States and China will trigger a significant deviation raising concerns in third markets about increased competition from China. The WTO considers that China's exports of goods will increase from +4% to +9% in all regions outside North America as trade will be reoriented. At the same time, it is expected that the U.S. imports from China will fall sharply in sectors such as textiles, clothing and equipment creating new export opportunities for other suppliers can bridge the gap.

The reinstatement of US tariffs could also have serious impact on export-oriented least developed countries, whose economies are particularly sensitive to economic shocks external markets due to the concentration of trade on a limited number of products and limited resources to deal with The setbacks. However - the WTO report notes - in the current situation, with the suspension of reciprocal duties on the United States, Least Developed Countries Could Benefit from the diversion of trade since their structure of trade exports is similar to that of China, especially in the textile and electronics sectors.

"Our simulations - explained Ralph Ossa, Chief Economist of the WTO - show that the uncertainty of the trade policies has a significant dampening effect on trade flows reducing exports and weakening business economic. In addition, tariffs are a political lever with consequences of often unwanted. In a world of growing trade tensions, a clear view of these trade-offs is more important than ever."

The Director General of the World Trade Organization, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, said she was "deeply concerned uncertainty that permeates trade policies, including the stalemate between the United States and China. The recent de-escalation of tariff tensions temporarily alleviated part of the pressure on global trade. However - he noted - the persistent uncertainty threatens to dampen global growth, with serious negative consequences for the world, in particular for the more vulnerable economies. In the face of this crisis, the members of the unprecedented opportunity to instill dynamism in the organization, promote a level playing field, simplify decision-making and adapt our agreements to respond better to current global realities."